Are Nottingham Forest safe from relegation? How Luton Town could survive on the final day of the Premier League

The 2023/24 Premier League season has been an eventful one for Nottingham Forest, on and off the pitch.

Nuno Espirito Santo took over as manager when Steve Cooper was sacked last December and the Portuguese coach has battled the threat of relegation amid a Premier League ban for financial rule breaches and a strange public war of words over refereeing standards .

Nuno’s men had looked on course for an impressive win against Chelsea last weekend, but two quick-fire goals from Raheem Sterling and Nicolas Jackson turned the game on its head and cut short the celebrations inside the City Ground. For many fans, that would usually mean a week of high anxiety before the final day of the league season, when their battle against relegation will be decided.

However, even if they are not mathematically safe, Forest and their supporters will not be feeling too worried ahead of their match against Burnley on matchday 38. Sporting News explains why.

MORE: How goal difference works and why it’s so important at this stage of a season

Are Nottingham Forest safe from relegation?

Official, Nottingham Forest can still be relegated — but it would take a remarkable set of circumstances for that to happen.

Had they held on for a 2-1 win over Chelsea, or even a 2-2 draw, Forest would have been mathematically safe before the final day. Because of their 3-2 loss, that’s not the case.

On the final matchday, Nottingham Forest travel to Burnley (who are already relegated), while Luton Town host Fulham. The results of these games will determine who enters the championship.

Premier League table 2023/24: How things stand at the bottom

16. Brentford 39 37 54 -7
17. Nottingham Forest** 29 37 47 -19
18. Luton town 26 37 50 -31
19. Burnley (R) 24 37 32 -36
20. Sheffield United (R) 16 37 35 -66

*10 points deducted for breaking profit and sustainability rules. The penalty was reduced to six points on appeal, but a further two points were then deducted for another breach on 8 April.

**Four points deducted for breach of profit and sustainability rules on March 18.

Basically, Forest are still overwhelming favorites to stay up. They only need a draw against Burnley to guarantee safety and even if they lose, Luton would need to beat Fulham by an implausible scoreline to stay up.

If Nottingham Forest beat or draw with Burnley, I am safe. Luton can do nothing.

If Nottingham Forest lose to Burnley, then Luton have a very slim chance. If Rob Edwards’ side can beat Fulham, they will be 29 points clear of Forest. Things will then come down to goal difference and here Forest boast a huge advantage: they are 12 goals clear of Luton after 37 games, meaning Luton need a 13-goal turnaround if they are to overtake Nuno’s side from that category.

For example, Luton should beat Fulham 6-0 and hope Forest lose to Burnley by seven goals for them to survive. It’s fair to say that this is an unlikely set of circumstances.

What about deducting points from Nottingham Forest?

Forest were deducted four points for breaching the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules. The club appealed against the decision, but without success. That means the deduction has already been applied to their points total, so Luton can’t expect any further help on that front.

Premier League 2023/24 TV channels, live streams

Region TV Streaming
Australia Optus Sports

Fubo Canada

India Star Sports Disney+, Hotstar,
UK Sky Sports, TNT Sports NOW TV, Sky Go,
Amazon Prime
Telemundo, Universo
Fubo, Peacock

UK: Matches are shown on streaming and TV platforms Sky Sports and TNT Sports, with selected matches on Amazon Prime.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Select matches are televised on USA Network (English) and Telemundo or Universo (Spanish), and all three channels can be streamed on Fubo. The rest of the matches are broadcast on the NBC Peacock platform for subscribers.

Canada: Every Premier League game this season is streamed exclusively via Fubo in Canada, with discounts currently over 9% on annual plans and over 20% on quarterly and monthly plans.

Australia: Fans in Australia can stream every match live and on demand on Optus Sport.

India: Star Sports Network has the right to show the Indian Premier League matches. In addition to an English broadcast on Star Sports Select, select matches will be available through regional streams on Star Sports 3 (Bengali, English, Kannada, Malayalam), Star Sports 1 (Bangla) and Star Sports 1 (Tamil).